Brazil, World power in the 2,020

According to a study published by the Council of the U.S. Intelligence, a dependet agency of the CIA, Brazil will be a world power in the 2,020


This year, Brazil will have economic growth exceeding 6%, higher than the world average, due to  a policy based on reducing costs and encourage private sector investments.

A year ago, when the world was suffering the consequences of the global economic crisis, Brazil made an exhaustive study of the public accounts, and its debt dropped, and it became a creditor economy from a debtor one.

Currently, the South American country has a number of sector of investments with a great rate of return and low risk in its favor. These sectors are basically the oil, gas, electric energy, railways, agriculture and building construction where Coutinho (President, National Bank of Economic and Social Development of Brazil, BNDES) said that the Government of Lula Da Silva has had a great contribution which let Brazil protect itself against of the effects of the housing bubble explosion. There are three main reasons to believe in Brazil;

1. Commodities; For the next fifty years, it is expected that a half of population world growth will be produced by eight countries, where Brazil is the only one that does not increase exponentially the commodities’ consumption, what would give it an advantage in the world trade. The meat demand made by China will represent the 40% of the world production, besides; urbanization will demand more raw materials like iron, mineral that Brazil produces in great amounts and Brazil is the first tropical country that is able to supply the meat market. For ten years, the economic politic tended to extend the livestock and the results were excellent and it is expected a production improvement in the future.
2. Oil; The fact of having a great reserve of black gold makes Brazil a strategic country with many advantages  over the traditional oil suppliers of the Middle East Region.
3. Demography;  Thanks to the reduction of the fertility rate that went from being 6.2 children per woman in 1,964, to 1.8 children in the present, Brazil will be able to increase the quality of the State services (education, health, etc). This decrease of the fertility will make possible the improvement of the education quality, reason why a production improvement is expected.

This study argues that Brazil will not lose its status as an American partner, but notes that if it really wants to get that position, it must get closer to Europe and Asia.

According to another study published by PricewaterhouseCooper, the emergent countries will have a great grow by the end of the 2,050, having a better position than the European countries. United States will be leading the world followed by China, India, Japan, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Russia, Italy, Turkey, Canada, Spain, Korea and Australia.

And who knows whether after the poor state of the economy of the European Union due to the low contribution of the countries of the enlargement of 2007 and poor economic and political actions of the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) countries such as Germany, Britain and France will regret having been part of the European Union or have given such aid or consent of both extensions.